Nate Swanson explains why the latest iteration of “maximum pressure” on Iran will fail:
There is no doubt this campaign will hurt Iran and its economy. But it will almost certainly fail to force Tehran’s surrender. Rather than succumb to pressure, recent history suggests that Iran will use its missile and drone program to exact steep economic costs on the global economy—either in the Strait of Hormuz or against Gulf countries—to again shift Trump’s risk calculus. The Islamic Republic believes it can outlast the United States’ will to exert economic pressure, just as it can survive U.S. military pressure.
It is reasonable to assume that another round of economic warfare will fail. Every other “maximum pressure” campaign to date has failed. It many cases, these economic wars have backfired by provoking even more of the behavior they were supposed to be discouraging.
Economic coercion is effective in causing pain and impoverishing ordinary people. As a tool for compelling other states to make significant concessions, it is mostly useless. When there is no credible assurance of sanctions relief, it becomes completely useless.